Showing posts with label mortgage rates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mortgage rates. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Bill Before the House May Make Houses Harder to Afford

From my in-box today:
“A draft bill to be discussed at a House subcommittee hearing today would raise the minimum down payment to 5% and would also make a significant cut to the maximum size of loans backed by FHA in many parts of the country. The maximum FHA loan size in expensive parts of the country is already scheduled to go to $625,500 from $729,750 on Oct. 1. However, in areas where home prices are more modest, that limit is scheduled to fall as low as $271,050. The bill would allow those limits to fall even more—to 125% of a county’s median home price.” -Russell Doi, RPA Mortgage
These changes will be a hurdle for many buyers. Buyers with great cash flow but low assets may find themselves pushed out of the market. Buyers basing their price range on the current $729,750 loan limit may have to lower their sights by more than $100,000.

Buyers searching in the $800,000 price range and looking to use the maximum loan, your window of opportunity is closing. All buyers with low down payments should consider buying now. With buyer-friendly legislation, interest rates below 5% and home prices relatively low, now could be the best time to make the move.

This may also create a temporary market surge for sellers who can come quickly to the market, as buyers look to capitalize on the existing rules. Particularly if your home is in a price range that benefits from the large conforming loan limit (usually properties over $800,000) and for homes in the "starter" price range (under $500,000 in this area) where down payments tend to by lowest. Houses sell for the highest dollar amount when they appeal to the largest amount of buyers. The proposed changes are enough to restrict affordability and move some currently active buyers to the sidelines.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

It's Time to Invest in Bay Area Real Estate

With a projected market recovery, historically low interest rates, ample inventory and low prices, now may be the time to invest in California real estate. Many first time home buyers lamented the loss of the $8,000 tax credit. However, lower interest rates still provide an opportunity. Today’s mortgage rates are hovering around 4.5%. This is a substantial financial incentive. Each percentage point saved on a home loan equates to about a 10% increase in affordability. With a principal and interest (PI) payment of $2,025 at today’s 4.5% interest a borrower can get a loan of $400,000. If interest rates increase to 5.5% that same PI payment of $2,025 will only allow the borrower $360,000. The extra $40,000 of affordability is a direct result of low interest rates. Each percentage point increase in rates decreases affordability by an additional 10%.

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Don't Expect to See 2009 Rates in 2010

The following is an excerpt from Mortgage News Daily. For the full story click here.

Plain and Simple:
Because the overall economic environment is cloudy and the Federal Reserve is still quite cautious, investors will remain defensive, which will prevent benchmark Treasury yields from moving significantly higher. On the flip side, equity bulls will rely on "THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WAS AVOIDED" perception as a reason to speculate that long term "buy low, sell high" investment strategies will be profitable. This will help stocks maintain positive progress instead of retracing back to "worst case scenario" lows. This risk taking attitude combined with a slowly recovering economy (anything but drastically worse) will prevent benchmark 10s from revisiting the days of old when 10s held between 3.27 and 3.51%. The rates of 2009 look to be a thing of the past.

For information on the housing market Berkeley, Oakland, Kensington, Albany, El Cerrito, and the surrounding areas, contact your Berkeley Hills Realty Agent.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Bigger Down Payments Create Challenges for Larger Homes

Some fast facts that make smaller homes easier to purchase in today's precarious lending market:

The current conforming loan limit is set at $729,000, but expected to reset as of January 1st, 2009 down to $625,000. Traditional financing is available for conforming loans with only 10% down. Down payments as low as 5% will still be possible under $625,000 with the help of FHA. The last day to qualify for the $729,000 loan is December 1st, 2008. If you act now, a qualified FHA buyer with 5% down ($38,250) can buy a $765,000 home and receive a reasonable conforming loan rate. After December 1st, qualified buyers with a 5% down ($32,500) can only buy a $650,000 and still receive a reasonable conforming loan rate.

Jumbo loans up to $1,000,o0o currently require a minimum of 25% down payment. Loan amounts from $1-1.5 million will require a minimum of 30% down. This means a jump today from a conforming $729,00o home to a $730,000 loan will require 20% more in down payment.

Today's buyer with $38,250, looks to buy the $765,000 house under the conforming loan guidelines. Say the buyer can not find a home that suits him in the price range. December first comes and goes. Time for a visit to the lender in the hopes of increasing the price range to $835,000 to meet his needs. Under the new Jumbo requirements the buyer will need 25% down ($208,750) to qualify. This buyer's wish to increase his search parameters by $70,000 is going to require digging deep. He will have to come up with an additional $170,500 down payment in the new year to accomplish his new search. Add volatility of the interest rates and the monthly payment may also increase dramatically even if the loan amount has not increased due to the larger down payment. Enter Mom and Pop: See the NYT article, Mixing Money and Family.

Jumbo rates are more expensive when buyers do qualify for them. Creative financing used to bridge the gap with second mortgages. Today, second mortgages are available up to $350,000, but only at a total loan to value ratio of 70%. This means a minimum of 30% down. These are equity line second mortgages with current rates from 4.75-5.5%.

Many clients looking to purchase larger homes do have assets. Often they already own a home with existing equity. This equity had been tapped in the past during a home purchase, based on an assumed rental value of the property. Now, in order to qualify without carrying the debt of both residences; Borrowers must retain 30% equity in the current house. They must have a signed rental agreement as proof of the rental value. They must have rental deposit verification. And they must show six months of PITI in reserves required on the current residence. Given these new restrictions, we may see more sale of house contingencies in our future. More likely, home buyers may be forced into an already bloated rental market as they seek to liquidate the equity from one property (selling first) as they strive to purchase their next home in a still competitive market. Beyond the financial stresses this often adds the stress of a second move.

Thanks to Ted and Tom from MPR Financial for helping sort out the details.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

News of Government Takeovers: Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae

The Jury is out on whether long term government involvement of these formerly private institutions will benefit our home buyers. So far the market has reacted possitively.

Our hope is that the resulting lower interest rates (at least in the short term) may make this an exceptionally good time to invest again in real estate. Could we be facing a unique market where the bottom (assuming we are near the bottom) could actually coexist with reasonable interest rates?

From AP:
Investors, Industry Pleased With Govt. Takeover




Here is the California Association of Realtor's official (cautiously optimistic) stance:


In light of the U.S. Dept. of the Treasury's action, C.A.R. today reaffirmed its support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and their countercyclical roles.

While the short-term impact of the Treasury's actions over the weekend served to calm the markets and restore confidence, in the longer term these entities need to be able to fulfill their historic mission. A privatized Fannie and Freddie will short-circuit the countercyclical role the GSEs have played during precarious times in real estate markets.

Without an institutionalized mortgage-backed securities market, mortgage capital eventually will be less predictable and more expensive, and adjustable-rate mortgages could become the standard loan for home buyers, as could higher down payment requirements. The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage as we know it will no longer be readily available for most home buyers and may effectively disappear. The result could be a dramatic decline in homeownership rates in California and across the nation.

C.A.R. is concerned that the Treasury, and Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's new CEOs, will overreact and change the mission and role of the GSEs. Wall Street and investors are understandably reluctant to buy mortgage backed securities (MBS) that are not either originated from or guaranteed by Fannie or Freddie.

The GSEs hold or have securitized nearly half -- roughly $5 trillion -- of all mortgages in the U.S., and in the current environment with private lender constraints, they account for the vast majority of all new mortgages in California.

We have just recently begun to see an increase in home sales, currently at nearly 490,000 units on an annualized basis, up from 284,000 in the fourth quarter of last year. The most significant, reliable source of home loans in California today are financed by either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. California's and the nation's housing markets simply cannot withstand the financial rug being pulled out from beneath them. Additionally, the repercussions this could have on the already weak economy could be devastating.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Appraising the Current Market Situation

by Arlene Baxter

Today our Berkeley Association of Realtors auditorium was packed to capacity with Realtors wanting to get the latest information on the status of loan availability and appraisal conditions in this changing market. Our speakers, one representative each from the mortgage and appraisal industries, confirmed what we’d been hearing anecdotally from our colleagues. Loans were super abundant a year ago, with everyone knowing someone moonlighting as a loan broker who could get you “such a deal!” Last summer came the implosion of sub-prime lending and the virtual disappearance of jumbo loan products, those loans larger than $417K. Fast forward to our current state. The pendulum has swung so far that now folks with a fully documented loan application may have great difficulty getting financing if they have less than 20% down, gorgeous credit scores, and substantial assets. Buyers who can stay within the limit of a $417K loan can still get very attractive rates, today at the 5.5% level. But buyers who need to borrow amounts up to the new “super-conforming” limit of $729,750 need to be prepared for much stiffer requirements (see FHA and Freddie Mac Daddy from March 6th, below).

One of the elements of loan approval that has been mostly in the background up until now is the appraisal process. In our area we have for more than a decade been able to assume that homes would appraise for their contract value, except in the rarest of circumstances. If a property had multiple offers, as so many did, that was a strong argument in determining that market forces were setting value, and that we were in an area of increasing values. Lenders allowed appraisers to use closed sales back as far as six months, and there was reasonable flexibility to use properties that shared a similar characteristic to the subject property, even if they weren’t in the same neighborhood.

The job of the appraiser has changed dramatically over the past few months. Marian Huntoon, the owner of Real Valuation in Berkeley, spoke to our Association today about the intensity of scrutiny that appraisers must now face. Lenders want to see properties used as comparables that sold within three months or less, and they insist on having both an active and a pending sale in the same neighborhood. Appraisers are now routinely making significant adjustments to value in order to use “comparable” properties that are really not very comparable at all. Marian estimated that it takes appraisers anywhere from twice as long to four times as long as a year ago to complete an appraisal report that is acceptable to the lender. Appraisal reports are now routinely sent back to appraisers with the request that additional adjustments be made to reflect declining market conditions. That is really a loaded phrase. Lenders are now reviewing market conditions with an extremely broad brush, defining the direction of the market by county, not by city, nor by neighborhood. Those of us who are actively representing clients in this area know that we are still seeing multiple offers on many properties in the most desirable neighborhoods. We are back to seeing pre-emptive offers both in the modest and in the most expensive price ranges. So to have both Alameda and Contra Costa Counties defined as a whole as “declining market conditions” makes us all a bit crazy. Explain that to my buyer who lost out in fairly modest competition of only four offers. He still didn’t get the house he loved! And then there was the James house, receiving 17 offers last week after only one Sunday open house (see our March 14th entry below).


But it is also true that there are properties sitting for a few weeks before they sell, as opposed to selling according to a pre-established seven or ten-day schedule. And then, even in some of our most desirable neighborhoods, there are the short sales, trust sales and foreclosures. Those are topics for another day!


Tip for Home Sellers: Review carefully with your listing agent what the recent sales have been, closest to your home both in location and style. Try to step back and look at the data the way both buyers and appraisers will now be forced to look: at currently active homes, those recently pending, and the sales back only a very few months. Even if some buyers might be willing to offer a very high price, unless they have unusually high cash reserves to make up the difference, most buyers will need to have your home appraise very close to their offer, in order for the contract to close. Sellers should come to expect to see both financing and appraisal contingencies in the majority of offers, rather than assuming that buyers will waive those contingencies in order to have their offer accepted. The goal is not receiving and accepting a very high offer. The goal is, and really always has been, to close the escrow, and at an acceptable price.

Saturday, February 9, 2008

Conforming Loan Limit to be Raised

From Inman Real Estate News:

Bush administration officials renewed their calls for Congress to pass legislation tightening oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Thursday, as Congress signed off on a plan to allow the companies to guarantee or purchase loans that exceed the $417,000 loan limit.

Senate Democrats on Thursday abandoned an attempt at a broad expansion of a $150 billion economic stimulus bill backed by the Bush administration and approved by the House last month.

In an 81-16 vote, the Senate sent a slightly modified version of the bill back to the House, which promptly voted 380-34 to put the bill on the president's desk.

The White House issued a statement saying President Bush could support the Senate's more limited amendments, which expand the pool of those eligible for tax rebate checks to include $300 payments to Social Security recipients and disabled veterans.

Bush said the bill "would quickly put money into the hands of the American people and provide our economy the boost it needs" and that he will sign it into law.

The economic stimulus package includes a provision that will temporarily raise the conforming loan limit to allow Fannie and Freddie to purchase or guarantee many jumbo mortgages originated between July 1, 2007, and Dec. 31, 2008.

The increase, to as much as $729,750 in high-cost areas, will also apply to Federal Housing Administration loan guarantee programs. Because the increase will be capped at 125 percent of the median home price for an area, the conforming loan limit will remain at $417,000 in markets where the median home price is $333,600 or less.

Although the increase will expire at the end of the year, industry groups like the National Association of Realtors have urged Congress to mandate a permanent increase in the conforming loan limit in passing legislation to increase oversight of Fannie and Freddie.

Permanent changes to FHA loan limits are being addressed in bills that would also lower minimum down-payment requirements and expand the pool of eligible borrowers by using risk-based pricing. Both the House and Senate have passed FHA modernization bills, but differences between them are being ironed out (see Inman News story).

This is wonderful news for our area, where the $417,000 loan limit didn't reflect our median home price. This will improve Bay Area housing affordability because conforming loans carry less risk to lenders and result in lower interest rates to consumers.

Survey of Bay Area Counties - Median Prices - Fourth Quarter 2007

County Single-Family Detached Homes Single-Family Attached Homes
Q407 Q406 % Change Q407 Q406 % Change

Alameda $638,569 $635,101 +1 $376,901 $415,572 -9
Contra Costa $597,736 $639,396 -7 $305,779 $347,796 -12
Marin $1,045,331 $967,286 +8 $663,934 $546,475 +22
Napa $604,500 $610,000 -1 $399,999 $425,000 -6
San Francisco $1,080,335 $970,548 +11 $799,559 $744,420 +7
San Mateo $1,133,184 $998,199 +14 $499,408 $496,812 +1
Santa Clara $942,782 $853,559 +11 $487,846 $438,207 +11
Solano $384,626 $457,415 -16 $234,778 $293,420 -20
Sonoma $521,441 $563,023 -7 $320,242 $349,248 -8
Bay Area $785,058 $735,295 +7 $527,859 $490,554 +8
source: Reuters

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

The Fed Works to Motivate Buyers off the Fence

Fed slashes key rate to 3.5%
Citing weakening economic outlook, Federal Reserve makes biggest cut in nearly 24 years - three quarters of a point.

I have notice that my phone has really been ringing a lot, particularly considering it is the first month of a new year. According to CNNMoney, Morgage applications have also been on the rise.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Mortgage application volume rose 8.3 percent during the week ending Jan. 18, according to the trade group Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly application survey.
The rise in mortgage applications is largely due to refinancing. The favorable rates which have been enticing current homeowners will likely be spurred even lower by the latest action of the Fed. This is likely to lure more borrowers into the home buying market.

In conversations I have had recently with buyers, the benefits of home-ownership often out-weigh concerns of a recession. From the perspective of well-positioned buyers-- as they consider the importance of all of their monetary decisions-- home ownership still tops their financial goals. For buyers who plan to stay in their new house at least five to seven years; the combination of good mortgage rates and optimism regarding the future value of Bay Area property makes owning a home a reasonable investment. "Either way we need a roof over our head. Lower interest rates make the monthly payments on a home more affordable," states one home buyer. There are also the intangible benefits of owning your own spot on the planet. You can change anything you want and (if you make your loan payments) no one will ask you to leave. If the recession continues, more may chose beans and rice over caviar; yet, many will also make the leap toward home ownership.



Thursday, September 13, 2007

It's a Great Time to Find Your Dream House

Many factors have come together in recent weeks making now a great time to find your forever home:
  • Rates have dropped creating an opportunity to lock into a 30 year loan at historically low interest rates.
  • Moving your equity to a more stable location can help protect your current investment.
    The Bay Area should escape worst of the states economic slump. "Real estate losses in the Bay Area will not be that bad, and the rest of the economy should be doing pretty well," Ratcliff said. "The Bay Area is positioned to do better than the rest of California for the next few years."
Real estate is cyclical. In the past, the market has repeated in roughly five year cycles (the recent 9 year up cycle is historically unusual, which could indicate that we are over due for a correction.) This could be a predictor that the market may be at the beginning of a five year downward trend. Desirable neighborhoods in Albany, Berkeley, Kensington and Oakland have held relatively steady during past downward trends.
  • For the sake of your investment, real estate agents recommend holding a property for a period of longer than five years. Purchasing a home that can meet your long terms needs will minimize any short term shifts in the market. The market traditionally responds to cyclical downturn with five years of rebound and gain.
  • Competition has decreased as some buyers sit back and wait for the market to declare itself. Decisive buyers have the advantage. Although prices have not dropped in desirable locations, prime properties in prime neighborhoods are available without the heartache of multiple offers. Your odds of being able to purchase the first house you fall in love with have increased.

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Refinance or New Purchase: What You Need Today to Get a Good Loan


Mortgage rates have fallen with the expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower the federal funds rate when they meet on September 18th. This has increased the number of applicants looking to refinance and apply for new purchase loans. Rates are good, but qualifying for the best rate is more difficult during the current mortgage crunch. Banks are understandably a bit shell shocked from the recent melt-down in the sub-prime market. This will result in a pendulum effect and a conservative approach to evaluating borrowers. Proceeding with caution is a good thing. Let's learn from past mistakes and move forward. For those looking to take advantage of the good rates, here is what it takes to impress a lender:
  • A Good FICO Score. Improve yours today with simple tips from our past post: Fix Your Credit...

  • A Sizable Down Payment. Most loans now require at least 10 percent down, and lenders prefer 20 percent down.

  • A Reputable Mortgage Broker. A good lender can increase your odds. Walking into your local bank branch may seem like an obvious approach to securing a home loan. However, your bank will have limited products available at any given time. Conversely, a good mortgage broker can shop your assets through multiple sources and help find the best program available for your situation. Reputation is important because you don't want to be disappointed if promises are not kept. Call your real estate agent for a reliable recommendation.

  • Verifiable Income. Lenders would like to see at least two years of documented income. Self-employed individuals can still get financing, but rates may be higher.

  • Patience. As banks take a more critical look at their borrowers, it may take longer for approval. Gather all the paperwork, and then realize that you may have to wait.
  • A Backup Plan. Some well-qualified buyers were disappointed recently when their lender unexpectedly pulled the plug.
  • A Dependable Real Estate Agent. A good real estate agent can help coordinate the pieces and keep your escrow on track.
Research source for this article: Dow Jones Business News (09/03/07)

Friday, August 17, 2007

Recession or Rally? The Feds Lower Discount Rate

Aug 10 (NYT) -- Saying it now feels that the recent disorder in financial markets has raised the risk of an economic downturn, the Federal Reserve today approved a half-percentage point cut in its discount rate on loans to banks....

The upheaval in the credit markets have confronted Ben S. Bernanke, the Fed chairman, with the first crisis of his 18-month tenure. In recent weeks, the Fed has intervened to support the markets by lending in the money markets against mortgage securities and Treasuries. It did so again this morning, by lending $6 billion against mortgage securities. Over all, since Aug. 9, the Fed has injected $94 billion into the financial system by lending in the open market.
The Federal Reserve is scrambling to address the mortgage crisis in an effort to stabilize the US economy. A reduction of the discount rate will specifically target banks that are having short-term financial difficulty (like, Countrywide.) This rate does not have a direct impact on consumers, so we will not see an immediate drop in interest rates. It does however free up financing making loans easier to obtain.
The discount rate is the one the Federal Reserve charges qualified lenders, mainly banks, for temporary loans. Lowering interest rates encourages banks to lend more money to mortgage borrowers.

That in turn could make it easier for home buyers, especially those using big-ticket loans called Jumbos, to get financing.
Lending restrictions will remain tight and sub-prime loans difficult to obtain. The ultimate question remains: Will the Feds efforts be enough to bolster consumer confidence? Information may arrive instantly, but insight takes longer. Fortunately, our traditional/seasonal August slowdown will give us an opportunity to sit back and watch the chips fall. Hopefully, the market will announce itself come September.

Friday, August 10, 2007

Help is on the Way: Central Banks Rally to Stabalize the Credit Market

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Central banks in the U.S., Europe, Japan and Australia added at least $131.3 billion to the banking system in an attempt to avert a crisis of confidence in global credit markets
More than just a housing crisis, the sub-prime fallout threatened worldwide economies as confidence faltered and stock market funds plummeted. Monday mortgage lenders seemed to be over-reacting as many companies stopped taking new applications and others failed to honor existing commitments. Major lending sources recoiled in fear of uncertain futures. Now the central banks are uniting to inject money back into the banking system. This major act is designed to help stabilize the market and soften the risk for mortgage-backed debt.
In the U.S., the federal funds rate opened at 6 percent, the highest in six years. The rate fell to 5.25 percent after the New York Fed bought $19 billion of mortgage-backed securities and then followed up with $16 billion of funds in a second operation.

'Unlimited' Ability

"The Fed has almost unlimited ability to supply liquidity if they feel that is appropriate,'' Rivlin said. She noted that it was "symbolic'' that the New York Fed's first operation today involved mortgage-backed debt -- the type of securities that investors are unloading.

Thursday, August 9, 2007

"Suddenly It's Not So Easy to Borrow"

As is often the case the New York Times says it best. Click on the link below for an easy to follow explanation of how we got into trouble:

Housing Busts and Hedge Fund Meltdowns: A Spectator's Guide


As new money loans dry up, sellers may have to consider creative financing to help buyers get in the front door, including; seller financing, land contracts and lease options. These concepts are not new, but feel more difficult to approach as sellers grapple with "the house that sold down the street two months ago for over asking price and closed in two weeks." As part of our service to sellers, we hope to expose your home to the largest pool of buyers, sell your home for the most money possible, and do our best to ensure that you never have to look back. Creative financing might help accomplish the first two tasks, but may keep your purse strings tied to the picket fence.

Wednesday, August 8, 2007

Lending Freezes, Rates on Hold, Clinton seeks Remedies

Here is an article listing some of the companies that have put a hold on writing new loans, or in some cases have declared an inability to fund existing obligations:

Mortgage mess spreads, creates bargains (Reuters)

The Federal Reserve met on Tuesday and left interest rates unchanged at 5.25%

Fed keeps US rates on hold; acknowledges market turmoil (AFP)


Hillary recommends action:

Clinton seeks aid for at-risk homeowners (AP)

Monday, August 6, 2007

The Sub-prime Fallout and Housing Affordability in the Bay Area

All of my usual optimism aside: For many months the sub-prime fallout did not seem to affect East Bay real estate, but now we are getting direct evidence that it is in fact taking some buyers out of the marketplace. A local lender, MPR Financial just sent a bulletin stating, "The secondary mortgage market has become extremely bearish on buying any new mortgages evidently due to the sub-prime fallout. If you have clients who are approaching the purchase of a home or new pre-approvals, please let them know that rates have risen dramatically and that lending guidelines have changed considerably." Although conforming loans are still available at reasonable rates, interest rates for jumbo loans are now exceeding 8%, and qualifying criteria has become more stringent. Self-employed and first-time buyers are often hardest hit as no-doc or low-doc loans and low-down payment loans become the first casualties of tightened lender restrictions.

Lenders are quickly closing the door to borrowers with low credit scores, small down payments for a new home or little equity in their current homes. Homeowners and buyers in high-cost areas such as California, Florida and the Northeast are also reeling as lenders chop "jumbo loan" programs.

"The market for virtually any loans with the slightest element of risk has effectively disappeared," John Bollman, an executive vice president at Cleveland-based National City Mortgage, wrote to his employees.

This will increase financing costs, mandate larger initial down payments for some buyers, and make monthly payments on some loans more expensive. Subsequently, the cost of home ownership has increased in our area. The full extent or length of this trend is unknown. Our housing inventory is still limited by our geographical boundaries, so how this will effect home prices remains to be seen.

Tip for Home Sellers: Make certain your real estate agent is equipped with the latest information on lending requirements and is assertive in asking the right questions of your perspective Buyer. Dated pre-approval letters may not meet the latest lender standards and no-doc, or low-doc loans may no longer be possible. A sizable down payment is now an even more valuable consideration in evaluating a purchase contract.

Tip for Home Buyers: Now more than ever, an experienced loan broker can help match your strengths to the best available loan program. Be wary of online lenders, especially if you do not have a local broker available to answer questions. A reliable real estate agent is also a must in the current climate. In a changing market reputable advisers are the best protection for your investment. See our post on fixing your credit score.

Friday, June 29, 2007

Would You Risk an "Extreme Mortgage?"

We recently met with new buyers to discuss the process of buying their first home. Since the first step in today's market is always getting pre-approval for a home loan, we spent a lot of time on the subject. With our advice and recommendations, these buyers were already pre-approved by the time of our face-to-face meeting. Although their credit and finances are strong, they were concerned with the loan broker's recommendation to consider an interest-only loan. With housing prices on the rise, loan products have gotten creative to meet the demand for more affordable payment structures. With a myriad of options out there, real estate agents can not be experts in the area of home financing and do not have access to all the answers to suit each individual buyer's needs. I am not an expert (although, I can recommend one.) I do, however, have first hand experience in the marketplace and can put my finger on two conflicting truths:

1.) A gamble on financing your biggest purchase is not worth the risk of foreclosure or a short sale. Short Sales and foreclosures are losing propositions and should be avoided at all cost.
A short sale occurs when a property is sold and the lender agrees to accept a discounted payoff, meaning the lender will release the lien that is secured to the property upon receipt of less money than is actually owed. Sometimes the debt in not "forgiven," but rather the difference is paid through a personal loan or alternative collateral.

2.) Home ownership is an admirable goal which can lead to increased financial security making some risk worthwhile. See MSN Money's article Why its smarter to buy than rent.

Reconciling the above concepts is a tasks best left to the experts. Real Estate agents can help you understand factors affecting the value of a particular property. Similarly, a loan broker can help you grapple with the value of a particular financial package. Today a loan broker sent me this insightful newsletter:

(excerpt From Cohns Loans Financial Newsletter dated 6/29/07)


As housing prices rise on the coasts -- $1,000 a day in some places -- buyers are taking on outsized mortgages and outsized risks. With the median home price in the Golden State nearing a half-million dollars, it's no wonder that fewer than 1 in 5 Californians can afford to buy a home. But plenty of people are snapping up high-priced houses anyway, on both East and West coasts, thanks to a burgeoning number of nontraditional mortgage loans. Can't afford a $100,000 down payment on a half-million-dollar home? Get a separate loan at a higher rate and borrow the money. Think you'll be richer down the line? Pay just the interest on your loan for a few years. Scared of high monthly payments? Get an adjustable interest rate that will stay low, at least for a while. It's a far cry from the days when 20% down payments and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages were the norm.

Borrowers on a precipice
But not everybody is so optimistic. A small band of skeptics is warning that homeowners are setting themselves up for a financial fall. If interest rates go up and home prices dip, owners may be forced to sell their homes at a big loss, some experts warn. "I'm nervous about it," says Elaine Worzala, professor of real estate at the University of San Diego. "I do worry about the borrowers in markets such as this one, where homes are so expensive." Her cautions are mostly ignored. To many aspiring homeowners, the housing market is issuing a clarion call they can't resist. In some parts of California, everyone seems to know someone whose home has skyrocketed $50,000 or even $100,000 in value in just the last two years or so.

A rush to buy, now or never
Although there are signs that local real-estate markets are cooling, "people act like we're going to run out of homes -- if they don't buy now they'll be left out forever," says Dan Ruiz, a mortgage broker who specializes in assisting Latino buyers in southern California. Because many of his clients can't afford to pay tens of thousands for a down payment, nearly all borrow the money, Ruiz says. And no wonder. In popular "80-20" or "100% financing" loans, potential homeowners borrow 80% of the purchase price of a home at one rate and the other 20% at a higher rate. Down payments used to be virtually mandatory "because the banks wanted you to have money in the investment to protect themselves," says Worzala. But now, the complex world of mortgage securities allows more flexibility.

Steeper risk in 'interest-only' mortgages
Adding to potential risk, buyers in California and elsewhere are turning to "interest-only" loans. By paying down only their interest for a few years, they keep initial payments low. Variable-interest-rate loans also woo potential home buyers. In many "hybrid" loans, the interest rates are fixed for the first few years, then can go up in the future, although the amount of increases is typically limited. For example, a homeowner might pay a fixed 3% interest for the first few years, with future increases limited to two percentage points a year or six points overall. The interest rate in this case, therefore, would never go above 9%. Sound reasonable? Lyndon Garcia thinks so. He had his eye on a $355,000 fixer-upper in the Los Angeles suburb of Whittier, but he didn't make enough as an environmental project manager to afford a $70,000 down payment. An 80-20 loan with an adjustable rate and interest-only payments was just the ticket. "There are so many positives to it," Garcia says. "Overall, it's an excellent plan. It helps the little guy." At least for now. But when interest rates go up, increasing monthly payments under adjustable rate mortgages? Combined with lower home prices -- something experts have been predicting in California for months, if not years -- they spell disaster. "A lot of people are already spending 50% of their income on their mortgage payment," says Worzala, the real-estate professor. "If the interest rates go up, they're all of a sudden very cash-poor, putting themselves in a position where they have to default on their loan and lose their house." Borrowers will be in especially bad straits if they haven't begun paying down the principal on their loans instead of the interest. "What's the incentive of staying if you have no equity?" Ruiz asks. But to new homeowners like Garcia, who bought his home with the help of Ruiz, the risk is worth it. Thrilled about his new house, he thinks his complicated mortgage loans are a "win-win."
One should consult with a qualified mortgage professional prior to implementing any mortgage strategies.
CohnsLoans is a full-service mortgage brokerage approved with numerous lending sources throughout the state. CohnsLoans provides conventional, nonconforming, jumbo, FHA and VA loans. We assist customers with great credit, bad credit, and no credit. CohnsLoans can also assist individuals who are self-employed and require either full documentation and no documentation loans. We can assist individuals and professionals with their financing needs whether buying, selling, or refinancing real estate. If we can be of assistance, please email us at newsletter@cohnsloans.com or call us at 510-528-3400.

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Mortgage Rates Rose to Nearly 7%

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Mortgage rates made their largest upward movement in nearly 4 years, and the 30-year fixed-rate reached its highest level since July 2006, Freddie Mac said Thursday.
Will this be the final straw that breaks the camel's back or in this case pops "the bubble?" Rising rates have stunned us this week with the sharpest increase in four years. Per CNNMoney.com:
Rising rates, among other factors, have caused the MBA and the National Association of Realtors to push back their forecasts for a home price recovery. Both groups are now looking to early 2008, compared with a previous outlook for mid-2007.
Still, the Bay Area is unique and we find reason to remain optimistic. We have not seen marked value depreciation of the homes in our marketplace. Because our geography (specifically the S.F. Bay to the west and East Bay Regional Park lands to the east) creates a natural boundary around our buildable land, housing stock is limited. Residential sales in this area are simply not affected by large scale developers or urban sprawl. Meanwhile, the University, our moderate climate and rich cultural offerings continue to bring new buyers to the area. Currently buyer demand continues to exceed the supply of housing. Multiple offers are less common, but still occurring.

We aren't seeing anything as dramatic as a pop of the bubble; however the market is treating buyers more justly. A bit more balance is a good thing. The influence of the National press has dampened the frenzy of the recent past. Buyer's mindsets have noticeably changed. During the height of the bidding wars, the Bay Area real estate market was much like a game of musical chairs: Buyers scrambled for a spot to plop their derrière when the music stopped, and they were often compelled to offer Sellers a premium to just to get a seat. There was legitimate fear in the marketplace as housing prices outpaced salary increases. If you didn't buy your way in, you may have quickly gotten priced out. That fear dissipated as the market mellowed. Now Buyers sense that they have more time to make more prudent decisions. Even in the cases of multiple offers, competition is not inciting the previous returns of 20-30% beyond the list price. Overbids seem to be a bit more modest, in the 7-12% range (with a few tantalizing exceptions still tickling the grape vine.)

This brings good news to Buyers. In addition to the tempering of the competition, buyer contingencies have regained some strength. In particular, buyer inspections have returned along with the negotiations associated with their findings. Unfortunately for all involved (this is an emotional process), we have also seen an increased number of homes "back on the market" as buyers struggle to develop a well rooted sense of value in what has been a changing market.

If you are a hesitant buyer, here are some more reasons to throw caution to the wind: First, historically speaking rates are still low (rates have reached double digits in the past.) Act now to take advantage of current rates. If interest rates continue to rise, any increases will continue to decrease affordability. Second, your life plans can also help dictate if the time is right for you. If your plan is to stay put for more than five years, your investment risks lessens. Despite dips in the value of real estate throughout the last century, California's housing values consistently reflected an overall gain. If you can wait out any turn in the market, time can help protect your investment. Third, owning your own home posses significant merits beyond the bottom line. With residential real estate, you also get the intrinsic benefit of the "use and enjoyment" of your own home. Lastly, increased rates and gloomy press reports are only part of the story. CNN says it best:
Mortgage rates, of course, are only one third of the affordability equation that plays out in the housing market. There's also home prices themselves and household incomes, both of which have been positive lately for buyers, according to DeKaser.
For Buyers and Sellers: Berkeley Hills Realty works hard to improve the odds in your favor. We remain ever vigilant and strive to think outside the box as it relates to all new information. For our Sellers, we have put new strategies in place designed to expand market exposure and to increase a property's perceived value. We also consult with our Buyer clients on factors that create and protect value as it relates to the purchase of their new home. As we embrace this new marketplace, we invite you, your friends, and family to call with any and all real estate related inquires. As always, we are happy to share our thoughts.

Sunday, June 3, 2007

Fix Your Credit, Get a Better Loan!

Berkeley Hills Realty
News You Can Use
Summer 2007 Issue

Giving Credit Where It’s Due
How to Improve Your FICO Score

By William Rodarmor

Anyone who has considered buying a home recently has heard the term “FICO.” It’s an acronym, and short for Fair Isaac Corporation. That company develops the software used by the three major credit bureaus to calculate their financial data on consumers. The bureaus use different names for the resulting numbers, but “FICO score” has become a universal shorthand way to describe a person's creditworthiness when they apply for a mortgage. (FICO scores range from 300 to 850. By law, each bureau must give consumers one free credit report every year.)

Most loan brokers find FICO scores convenient, some think them overly rigid. But love them or hate them, credit scores are here to stay. They make a big difference in how much borrowers pay for loans, so it’s worth finding out what factors affect your score and how to make them work to your advantage.

“FICO scores are huge now,” says Robert Jackson, an East Bay loan broker with BayCal Financial. “The credit score is the most important item that banks look at nowadays. They also look at your current amount of debt, job history, income, amount of savings, and how much down payment you are making. But the FICO score has become the real predictor of how you're going to pay your mortgage back.”

Paul Riccardi, president of MPR Financial in Albany, agrees. “Lenders now are very credit-score driven,” he says. “Income and assets are taken into account, but credit scores have become a sizable portion of the way a person's credit worthiness is evaluated.”

“In the old days, the numbers that mattered were your age and weight,” says Hazel Valera, a credit consultant in San Jose. “Today it’s your FICO score.” Valera claims that she once even heard a woman say that if you're thinking of going out with a man, “first find out what his score is.”

A Short Course In Score

A bank’s decision to lend someone money is based on risk, and one way to evaluate that risk is to look at the person's history of paying other people back. That's reflected in credit scores. A borrower with a high score, documented income, and other favorable factors is a desirable customer to do business with. (Also, loans are often resold on the secondary mortgage market, so the better the overall package, the more salable it is.)

The picture is clearest at the low and high ends of the score range. With a score of 550, you pay through the nose. With a score of 820, you get the red carpet. The chart makes this painfully clear. On a fixed-rate 30-year $700,000 loan, someone with a 550 score will pay $2,601 more a month than someone with an 820 score, and pay $936,341 more in interest over the life of the loan.

“As a general benchmark, if your credit score is over 720, your eligibility is increased,” says Riccardi. “Also, you can increase your loan to value to 100 percent financing. If it goes over 740, in some cases you get pricing compensation; the lenders knock off a percentage of your loan fee because your score is so high. That’s a rarity, but they will do it on occasion.”

But what about more average borrowers who want to buy a house, can document their income, and have a FICO score between 620 and 680?

“A 680 credit score is right in the middle of the road,” says Sam Krueger, a residential loan consultant with First Residential Mortgage Consultants in Berkeley. “If you're able to document your income and are putting 20 percent down, you’re probably going to get a really good loan.”

“In general, a score of 680 or better will get you in the door to almost all loan programs,” says Lisa Wagner of KLA Mortgage in Berkeley. “The higher the score, the better the lender likes it.” At 720 or better, some lenders may give you a discount, says Wagner. “They might give something back on the points, for example. Depending on the size of the loan, that can represent a significant savings.”



How to Improve your Credit Score

FBut what if your score is around 620 or below? It takes work, but there are a number of things you can do to raise your score and the esteem in your banker's eyes. Be warned, though: It's hard to change your credit score in a short period of time. It usually takes six months to a year to show results.

“I would get in touch with a mortgage broker and have a loan application and credit report pulled so you work on any potential problems,” says Jackson. “In fact, it's a good idea to pull up your credit report at least once a year to make sure that everything is being reported correctly. There are serious errors on lots of them.”

“Credit reports are usually pretty clear as to where the problems are,” says Riccardi. “Late payments, collections that have gone unpaid, balances that are too high. Or maybe something happened in the past that hasn't fallen off the credit report yet. All of these can affect that score.”

That said, there are many ways to maintain a high score or improve a low one.

Have multiple lines of credit. The ideal number is four open lines of credit, says Jackson-a car loan, a mortgage, and two credit cards, for example. “Use these 'lines' actively, and pay them off on time every month,” he says. “That keeps your score high.” Store cards-whether from Nordstrom or The Good Guys-don't have the same weight. Stores just don't extend a lot of credit, even to good customers.

Low balances, high limits. Keep balances low and credit limits high. A balance of less than 50 percent-30 percent is even better-on a card with a $10,000 limit is helpful. To lower a high balance, spread the money owed among a number of accounts, so it’s not over 50 percent on any single card.

Guard your older credit accounts. Even if you feel you have too many credit cards, don’t close the ones you’ve had for a long time. “The payment history on an old account counts for 35 percent of your score,” says Valera. “That’s the largest portion of your score.” It’s best if the accounts were opened some years ago, and show a perfect payment record.

Make all payments on time, especially your mortgage. “It's crucial not to have late payments on current mortgages,” says Wagner. “Those will hurt you with the lender more than any other kind of late payment you can have.”

Beware of unpaid medical bills. “Medical bills are notorious for causing problems,” says Jackson. “People go to the doctor and think their insurance company has paid the bill. But when they apply for a mortgage, they discover they've had a collection pending for the last two years.” Valera agrees: “Your ambulance bill will go straight to collections even before it gets to your insurance carrier, so if there is a mistake, it ruins your credit. Even if you pay it, the collection stays on your credit report.”

Pay off past due accounts, but let sleeping dogs lie. “Paying off a really old debt can actually hurt you,” says Krueger. “If you have an account due on your credit report that is a four or five years old, it will often be worse to pay it now, because that makes it more recent.” Just wait, he says. “After seven years, things are supposed to drop out of the score.”
Avoid public liens and judgments. Don't get into a fight with the guys who screwed up your kitchen remodel. They might slap a mechanic's lien on your house, and it will linger on your credit report even after it’s been satisfied. Bankruptcies, public liens, and judgments can stay on your credit report for ten years.

When asking for a mortgage, don’t apply for new credit. There are two reasons for this. First, you are showing the lender a snapshot of your current finances, so don’t change the picture while it's being looked at. Second, applying for new credit generates inquiries on your credit report, and the more inquiries you have on your credit report the slower the bureaus become, says Valera. There are two types of inquiries, “soft” and “hard,” she explains. A “soft” inquiry is what happens when you ask for your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com or directly from one of the bureaus. A “hard” inquiry occurs when you actually apply for a loan.

Take your name off marketing lists. People often wonder why applying for a mortgage seems to trigger a flurry of marketing solicitations. It’s because the credit bureaus sell your personal data to banks and mortgage companies. This can generate an onslaught unsolicited marketing material, and may even lower your credit score a bit. Valera urges her clients to sign up at OptOutPrescreen.com. “That takes your name and address off all the lists that the credit bureaus use to sell marketing data,” she says. “It will reduce your junk mail and all those offers for pretty 0% interest cards. I can't prove that going to OptOutPrescreen.com actually increases your score, but my clients gain 5 to 7 points every time they do it.”

Piggyback on someone else's established credit. “Here is a trick that can increase your score a lot, and it's especially useful for young people,” says Krueger. “Suppose you're a student in your twenties with a student loan and one credit card, and your mom or dad adds you to their credit card: Boom! You now have ten years of credit history. It's like magic.” The primary holder's card will appear on your credit report, he says, and the report will treat that account as if it's yours. That way, you benefit from the card's low balance and long payment history.

Watch out for the little things. Small errors in a credit report can have a large impact. One Albany couple recently came to see a local mortgage broker with a tale of woe. They said that Bank of America had issued them a credit card that they didn’t use, and had been mailing the statements to the wrong address. “They never used the card, so no payments were made for four or five months,” says the broker. “It dropped their credit score 120 points!” The broker contacted B of A to clear up the mistake, but without success. “The credit card division was a complete pain about it,” he says. “This was a simple little error that wasn't my clients' fault, yet it was quite a ding to their credit.”

Is FICO a Four-Letter Word?

Loan brokers know a lot about credit scores, but that doesn’t mean they like them. “I hate these scores,” says one broker. “They're arbitrary, and a lot of erroneous information appears on people’s credit reports. I’ve seen people with bad credit but high scores, and vice versa. You might be a good credit risk but have a poor score because of one stupid thing you did. But that's the way it is now, so you have to play by the rules.”

Hazel Valera studies those rules carefully, and says she uses them to her credit clients’ advantage. “One thing I like about FICO is that if you make a mistake, you can correct it in six months. Before FICO came along, if you had a bankruptcy, that was it. Nobody would talk to you for seven years!” Today, Valera claims she can help people get right out of bankruptcy and buy a house when they are gainfully employed again. “But they have to follow my plan, and work at it,” she says. “The worst thing you can do is to do nothing.”

Sam Krueger isn’t crazy about credit scores, but has learned to live with them. “In the early days, you could write letters about unfavorable items on a credit report and explain them away,” he says. “Some lenders still operate that way, but very few.” On balance, however, he says that credit scores work okay. “We could probably come up with a better system, but credit scores are like SAT scores. Ultimately, they reveal a lot of truth.”

William Rodarmor is a writer, editor, and French translator in Berkeley, California.

© 2007 by Berkeley Hills Realty