Showing posts with label Zillow. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Zillow. Show all posts

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Wishing the Zestimate for Your East Bay Home was Higher?

an opinion by Tracy Sichterman

All homeowners wish the automated valuations on sites such as Trulia and Zillow would be a bit more optimistic. However, a recent Seattlepi.com post titled, Home sellers wary of new MLS rules, warns of a new Northwest MLS rule attempting to screen these valuations. Staff writer Gerry Spratt writes:
The Northwest Multiple Listing Service has instituted new rules about blogging and automated estimates of property values, but some industry insiders say the changes could end up hurting the people they are meant to protect -- sellers.

The new rules allow sellers to block automated valuation models (AVMs) from appearing next to their listings and prevent agents from blogging about their properties. AVMs are intended to reflect the market value of a property, but can often vary wildly from listed prices.
Despite wild variations and negative valuations, I am against such rules that would block blogging and AVMs. In my broad opinion, if you try to regulate the internet, you only end up screening out the “real voices.” Those who want to manipulate the data always seem to find work-arounds to the barriers. Conversely, those with a legitimate perspective often only participate if they feel invited. Blocking AVMs and blogging may effectively uninvited many voices.

Blocking contrary opinions on the web also feels a bit deceitful to me. Throughout the sale, ethical Realtors encourage sellers to “disclose, disclose, disclose.” How do such agents go from that stance to a sidebar statement of, “let’s opt to screen out any potentially negative information that your future buyer might find on the web.” Instead a smart real estate agent should employ tools like Google Alerts to keep up and participate in the active dialogue about their listing.

We need to embrace transparency throughout the real estate industry. In the aftermath of the sub-prime crisis, consumers cried out for more transparency. Screening out negative comments or valuations on the homes that we sell flies in the face of that goal. It is like saying, “we want our banks to be subject to scrutiny but don’t look too closely at the property itself.” If a public AVM comes in with a low price, it is up to the seller and agent to effectively dispute that data. Convince the buyers otherwise. And, by the way, he/she is a 2009 consumer and you are going to need some facts to back up your argument.

Prove why you think your Zestimate is wrong, but don’t pretend the information isn’t out there. This statement is coming from a Berkeley agent who works in an area sprinkled with “older homes” and “famous architects”; two complex issues for computer generated valuations which often create wild discrepancies in AVMs. The real estate industry needs to stop working so hard at protecting and sequestering information and stand up instead for the competent professionals who are willing to participate in active, informed dialogue with consumers.

Speaking of information being “out there”, how do they intend to regulate such a rule? Take the following scenario: Let’s say an agent blogged about a particular listing last year, but it did not sell. This year, the homeowner puts the home back on the market to once again test the waters. The seller now opts to restrict agent blogging. A search under the property address may bring up a reference to last year's blog. If that blog doesn’t have a date stamp, is the agent in violation of the current restriction? Web 101 students know that you can’t really take anything back. Once it is out there, it’s out there. Regulation, in my opinion is not only deceptive, but pointless.

Tip for Buyers and Sellers: This post references publicly listed AVMS. Currently, lender generated AVMS (ordered as part of the loan underwriting process) do occasionally interfere with the transaction. In some instances, Bay Area buyers have offered to purchase the property for substantially more than the AVM price would reflect. The difficulty often comes when the buyer pursues a loan to complete the purchase. The lender employs an AVM that doesn't take into account important specifics about the property (such as the LEED certification or the famous architect.) We have seen loans get turned down based on a banks faulty AVM or a narrowly restricted appraisal despite the willingness of buyers. So far, the answer has been to 1. try to dispute the resulting appraised value or insist on a new appraisal, 2. resubmit the application to a new lender, or 3. in the worst case scenario, put the house back on the market to look for a new buyer. We have discovered that open dialogue only works when all parties are reasonable. Given the pendulum effect of the mortgage crisis, not all banks are ready to be reasonable.

As for the public sites, a homeowner can correct inaccurate data that may have gone into the algorithm. (My own home was listed on Zillow minus 1,000 square feet of legal living space-- until I corrected it.)

Friday, May 9, 2008

Twisted Statistics

Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable.
~Bobby Bragan, 1963
Here’s the real problem with year-over-year statistics:

The follow is quote is from the comments on Which California did you mean?!
Year-over-year appreciation in your markets (by city) was as follows:
Albany -8.6% ~David G from Zillow.com
Here are the actual unscreened statistics taken from the Multiple Listing System:

Market Summary Month of April 2007

Price Range
No. of Listings Dollar Volume Average Price Median Price DOM





















Detached





$550,000 - $554,999
1 $550,000 $550,000 $550,000 13
$565,000 - $569,999
1 $565,000 $565,000 $565,000 29
$580,000 - $584,999
1 $580,000 $580,000 $580,000 12
$595,000 - $599,999
2 $1,195,000 $597,500 $597,500 17
$605,000 - $609,999
1 $605,000 $605,000 $605,000 21
$645,000 - $649,999
1 $645,000 $645,000 $645,000 13
$725,000 - $729,999
1 $727,000 $727,000 $727,000 12
$795,000 - $799,999
1 $795,000 $795,000 $795,000 15
$875,000 - $879,999
1 $875,000 $875,000 $875,000 14
$1,005,000 - $1,009,999
1 $1,006,000 $1,006,000 $1,006,000 8
Sub Total
11 $7,543,000 $685,727 $605,000 16
Condo





$285,000 - $289,999
1 $285,000 $285,000 $285,000 156
$430,000 - $434,999
1 $430,000 $430,000 $430,000 56
$450,000 - $454,999
1 $450,000 $450,000 $450,000 3
Sub Total
3 $1,165,000 $388,333 $430,000 72
Townhouse





$485,000 - $489,999
1 $485,000 $485,000 $485,000 9
Sub Total
1 $485,000 $485,000 $485,000 9









15 $9,193,000 $612,867 $596,000 26

Market Summary Month of April 2008
Price Range No. of Listings Dollar Volume Average Price Median Price DOM


















Detached




$350,000 - $354,999 1 $350,000 $350,000 $350,000 98
$610,000 - $614,999 1 $610,000 $610,000 $610,000 14
$625,000 - $629,999 1 $625,000 $625,000 $625,000 18
$680,000 - $684,999 1 $681,500 $681,500 $681,500 8
$765,000 - $769,999 1 $767,500 $767,500 $767,500 17
Sub Total 5 $3,034,000 $606,800 $625,000 31

Condo




$340,000 - $344,999 1 $342,000 $342,000 $342,000 7
$345,000 - $349,999 1 $348,000 $348,000 $348,000 31
$385,000 - $389,999 1 $385,000 $385,000 $385,000 55
Sub Total
3 $1,075,000 $358,333 $348,000 31







8 $4,109,000 $513,625 $497,500 31

1. Because of low inventory, many statistics rely on a small handful of closed transactions. Last year the City recorded 15 closings in the month of April compared with only eight in 2008. One of the five single family homes (three were condos) used to derive this years statistics was a freeway impacted fixer on Polk street which sold for an artificial low of $350,000. This home alone has a dramatic impact on the statistics representing 20% of the remaining single family homes recorded.
2. Many of the sales forced by the mortgage melt-down are in lower price ranges where sub-prime financing played a key role in the purchase. 40% of this years sales in April were condominiums verses 26% last year.
3. Conversely, many of the sellers with significant equity in desirable neighborhoods are choosing to stay put. The resulting inventory has shifted towards lower priced houses which in turn affects the statistics. The property with the highest value last year ($1,006,000 for 1749 sq ft of living space) was at 1031 ORDWAY STREET, which is Albany's top location. This year the highest value ($767,500 for 1372 sq ft of living space) was on 535 STANNAGE AVE just two blocks above San Pablo Avenue a good two tiers below Ordway in neighborhood desirability.

The year-over-year sales jumped to different locations within Albany, and to smaller properties-- while presenting fewer properties to test the averages. What does -8.6% mean if the statistics are chasing a moving target?

Tip for Sellers: The transactions we see daily do not behave according to the stats. We see the specifics change dramatically neighborhood by neighborhood and street by street. If you want to know what your home is worth in all of this, have your real estate agent prepare a Comparative Market Analysis, which will pull the most current sold prices for homes nearest to your property. Compare apples only to other apples. Random percentages don’t cut it anymore; you need to see for yourself where the statistics are coming from.

Tip for Investors: The twisted statistics do create an opportunity for investors. Since institutional lenders are not here in the trenches, they must rely on statistics, regardless of how faulty they are. What's more, in the current climate they are happy to act conservatively based on the numbers. Short sales and foreclosures (where they exist) do present an opportunity for investors as it is easy to negotiate and justify a low price to someone who is judging our market by the statistics.

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Which California did you mean?!

by Arlene Baxter

Yesterday Zillow reported that 130 out of the160 metropolitan areas they have been surveying now have median home prices below last year's. Of the 10 metropolitan areas with the biggest declines, five were in California.
As I read this newly released information I was once again reminded how crucial it is to be precise in defining what area you refer to when speaking about value trends. We start with: "California one of three states with largest losses in property values." Then we go to the supposedly local information: "San Francisco values down 13.5% from last year". But read on: San Francisco, Oakland and Fremont define an area! Even forgetting that you're commingling counties, San Francisco merged with Fremont?! I fail to comprehend the value to anyone of such merged data.
We all know California is not one housing market, but many completely different markets, representing all manner of market behaviours. San Francisco alone is not one housing market, but many diverse and conflicting markets. Some neighborhoods are very active, some in desperate straits. I primarily represent the markets of Berkeley, Albany, Oakland and Alameda, in Alameda County, plus El Cerrito and Kensington in Contra Costa County. Just within my own geographic areas there are numerous micro-markets. Last week in a desirable Berkeley neighborhood with little on the market, a house was listed in the low $900K range. The house was charming, but needed updating to most major systems. It received 10 offers, with the successful offer being more than $350K over list! That was noteworthy, but not unique in this market area. In Berkeley and Rockridge in Oakland multiple offers are common (just not having ten of them!) We are seeing fewer and fewer contingencies in offers. We see pre-offer inspections by buyers, and once again we have pre-emptive offers. Right here, right now, there certainly are more qualified buyers than desirable listings.
Meanwhile, buyers continue to read that it's their market, and are shocked, and sometimes resentful, when I need to educate them to the true and fast nature of most of our local micro-markets. But the local news is the only news that really matters!

So I continue to blame it on the wisteria! See my April 20th post below, including an all-wisteria, all-the-time slide show! While most is now past its prime, today's view of the entrance to Gourmet Mecca (otherwise known as Chez Panisse!) was even more enticing draped in wonderful white, fragrant blossoms.
The depressed, bottomed-out market of the Zillow news is truly not the world of Gourmet Ghetto. I splurged on Ciao Bella sorbet while I photographed scenes of the Epicurious Garden. Lychee and Passion Fruit put me in a mood to appreciate the sensual pleasures of our little stretch of paradise all the more. And then when I walked into the small branch Post Office and was served immediately, I knew for sure that I was in heaven!